3 Stages of a Bear Market

September 7, 2022

How is the crypto market doing now?

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There are 3 stages of a crypto bear market.Read on to see where we are at now.

This thread is inspired by @JasonYanowitz, founder of @blockworks_. Follow Yano to learn more about crypto trends.

Stage 1: The Unwind

The excitement from the bull market still exists.
Assets still have floors.
Valuations are cut but don't hurt much.

Stage 1 doesn't feel like a bear market.

Investors continue allocating, builders keep building...
In general, life is good. Only the weak hands sell.

Stage 2: Forced Capitulation

Things start to get ugly.
Narratives die. Prices plunge. Layoffs across the board.
Mainstream media and cynics rise up.

Luna sent us into Stage 2.

In Stage 2, diamond hands become forced sellers.
Celsius doesn't want to sell – they might have to sell.
So do more funds, companies, and individuals.

In Stage 2, any bounce will be immediately sold into

Companies that need high token prices will be crushed. Founders that buy their own tokens to sustain their projects… also get crushed.

A vicious cycle.

The lower prices go, the louder the bears get.
The louder the bears, the lower the prices go.
In Stage 2, prices crash violently.
Excitement turns into anger.

Stage 3: Bottomless ExhaustionAfter max pain comes max exhaustion.There are no bounces or narratives.

Prices consolidate sideways or slowly move down.At the bottom, anger is replaced by silence.

During Stage 3, you'll want to walk away.

Regulators will kick us while we're down.
Your favorite Twitter degens will go quiet.
Web2 investors will quietly stop allocating.
Talented builders will leave.
Companies will shut down.

Stage 3 is the toughest to survive.

If you're a company, do whatever it takes to get through.
If you're a builder, stay interested. Find other builders and build with them.
If you're an investor, develop your own theories. Take bets on people you believe in.

Don't lose sight of the big picture.

We're building an open, permissionless world.
It will take decades, not years.
Close the computer, zoom out, go for a walk.
Just don't give up.

@fredwilson’s words still ring true:

a) Many talented people left. But those who stayed were rewarded.
b) We will have to hunker down and build value and survive for quite a while to get there.

Things will get worse before they get better.

In bear markets, remember why you're building.

a) Yano’s all-time favorite reading list: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitz/status/1536488408926797826
b) @mishadavinci also lists 25 top resources to learn web3: https://twitter.com/mishadavinci/status/1556282986164895747

Stay with Smoothie!

Smoothie tells web3 stories and launched a discover-to-earn awards platform for web3 projects.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Right now, it feels like we’re in Stage 3.
You'll question every assumption you had.
During the last phrase, some projects/coins stay, even looking bullish.
Hold on to the building to get through the slump.

Sources

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